The Coming Revolution in Transportation

[MiniDave]

and what it means for us in the industry......interesting article, and while I'm not sure I agree with the time line, it's for sure that the times they are a changin.....

https://medium.com/@tomprice_22461/the-last-auto-mechanic-841adec75498

so what will this mean for us hobbyists?

Well, our favorite cars are going to become very cheap to buy, but very expensive to run.

There will be very few people alive who know how to work on them, but there will be plenty of parts......... for a while.

It almost seems like they're describing a Mad Max future for ICE cars......

At the same time it will be like living on Mars, with nothing but electric cars quietly motoring about. Imagine how much quieter it will be? The only noise will be tire noise.....

The one thing these prognosticators haven't addressed is the effect weather will have on the fleets of autonomous cars.....whose going to put the chains on so it will go thru the mountains? Who is going to plow the roads and lay down snow melt? Or will travel simply halt till it clears up again?

[gr8kornholio]

For the past 15-20 years they've been trying to automate my line of work.  The tool is still a pile, but if you babysit the crap out of it and have a really well written constraints file it will do a decent half ass job.  So my feeling on full automation of cars is WAY WAY WAY in the future.  Not to worried about the hobby either.  Now the people not knowing how to work on old things is a reality that is coming on quick.  Got to keep teaching the little ones and get people into the trades.

I'll read the article eventually since I may have just chewed on my shoe with this spew.   77.gif

[MPlayle]

I read about half the article.  I noticed some very significant gaps in what the article addresses.

The constant availability of the Autonomous EV's (A-EVs) discussion made no accommodation for the need to be recharged.  There was no addressing the recharge times required for constant local driving, nor long distance driving.  (Long 1-day trips in an ICE car become multiple day trips in EV's of any sort.)

Nothing addressed any of the issues currently tripping up A-EVs today that will be magnified many-fold when attempting to force mass adoption in a short period.  A-EVs have a serious issue dealing with interactions involving random human behavior.  All the behaviors they claim A-EVs will save us from have to be dealt with during the transition from one type of vehicle to the other.

The economics also don't quite add up.  EV's may be slowly getting less expensive, but they are still a premium over the ICE equivalent.  All of the A-EV features are priced above the basic EV.  The year 2020 is only 2.5 years away.  Changes in production and costs are not going to happen that fast.

[BruceK]

Enthusiastic predictions about the future are always spot on.     ::)

Just look at what GM said 55 years ago about what driving would be like: we'd all be driving cars powered by turbine engines, and the highways would be 'smart', not the cars.   

That would have happened, but instead we all have personal flying cars, and each of us enjoys our own unlimited free electricity, thanks to our family-sized nuclear reactor in our own backyards. 

[MiniDave]

I guess the difference is the article is not predicting new tech, merely the increased usage of existing tech. also they're not predicting far into the future, rather just a few years....that's what makes it so interesting to me - how quickly they think our patterns and usage will change.

I agree that I don't think the infrastructure is ready for the demands they predict, even if they'll be using it off peak......

I predict I will be using my ICE cars well into the future, assuming I can get and afford fuel for them, and the gummint in it's infinite wisdom doesn't legislate them or tax them into oblivion..

[BruceK]

I guess the difference is the article is not predicting new tech, merely the increased usage of existing tech. also they're not predicting far into the future, rather just a few years....that's what makes it so interesting to me - how quickly they think our patterns and usage will change.

I agree that I don't think the infrastructure is ready for the demands they predict, even if they'll be using it off peak......

I predict I will be using my ICE cars well into the future, assuming I can get and afford fuel for them, and the gummint in it's infinite wisdom doesn't legislate them or tax them into oblivion..

I think the author is envisioning everything just coming together in some sort of magic convergence.  I don't think it's going to be that way at.  Some things will happen quickly, but others will be very slow.   For example, the average age of cars on the road in the US is 11 years --  so basically for every new Tesla or Bolt or Leaf electric sold, there's still a 1995 Oldsmobile or Camry still being used by somebody.   And probably by someone who can't afford anything newer.   So, by 2025 today's Olds driver will have a 2004 model, or perhaps a 2011 car, but likely not a brand new 2025 car.

The author says"  "Meanwhile, consider for a moment what happens to all the towns out there along the interstate dependent on traffic, as the numbers of drivers stopping in for gas, dinner, and a hotel room slowly dwindles, and then...stops?

Huh?  I must be missing his point.  Is he saying there will be no need to stop to recharge (both for vehicles and humans alike) in the shiny bright future? 

I guess we need articles like this from the dreamy-eyed just to help prepare us for what might be coming in the future, but I think this one is a little too rosy.



I do see the need for older cars to be equipped with some sort of a retrofit transponder so that 'smart cars' can see them at some point in the future. 

[jeff10049]

 :D ICE  auto plans, partnerships, transmisions, engines, car platforms already extend years and years beyond that article's prediction multibillion dollar ICE platforms are under way for cars not set to come out for another 7-10 years. Yes ev and aev is here and growing but they break down and need repair as well and the average ice life of in the article gave me a laugh we don't even start working on them untill after 150k these days 300+k is not at all uncommon. Auto Mechanics are not going anywhere EVER.  That and EV long haul Semitrucks Don't and won't exist in a practical manner now maybe ever. I know were talking about cars but as far as ICE mechanics are concerned Most  Ships, Bulldozers, tractors, rural freight trains, commercial landscape equipment, concrete trucks, snowmobiles, snowcats, all the 40- 45 foot RV's we work on,  and airplanes just to name a few  aren't going EV anytime soon.

I'll still have a classic mini 15 years from now and a gas powered pickup truck that dose not drive itself hopefully I'll own a Tesla by then and plenty of gas and ev options will still be around and mechanics to fix all that stuff.

[dimini]

Very interesting story and for me, a bit depressing.  I agree w/Dave that the timeline seems ambitious.  The thought of owning an EV is appealing, as a part of the car collection at home, but the autonomous aspect gives me the creeps.  One thing for sure, I'm am most grateful for the gas guzzling, oil-dripping obnoxious little British cars that we are still playing with daily!  Long live the visceral experience of motoring.